SAMT Blog
NATURAL GAS - analysis over 20 years
12. October 2023, by James Touati
Technical Analysis, harmonic patterns
James D.Touati alias "The Wolf of Zurich"
proposes you a new approach for users and members, with new posting styles, short formats, graphs, languages and publication frequency.
This publication was made in collaboration with Thomas Veillet. www.investir.ch
You are probably aware that winter is approaching. And who says winter, says heating, and therefore significant gas consumption. I know that while you are eating on a terrace in 30 degree weather, it is not easy to want to talk about winter. But it could well be that turtleneck season will come back one day. So let's be ready!
A few weeks ago I carried out a very simple but quite logical analysis on
Natural Gas.
On the graph – you don’t need to have higher education to see that for 20 years prices have been increasing from September-October.
Natural Gas chart over 20 years – Source: Tradingview.com – James D. Touati analysis – SAMT-ORG.ch
DEEP CRAB and a bullish Wolfe Wave.
In addition, on a much more technical chart I was able to spot a harmonic pattern.
The probability of an increase in gas prices is therefore currently very strong and quite logical – even the 20 minutes news is talking about it! This means: The winter is likely to be long, according to the world energy agency...
For those who want to take positions – be wary of the gap left on the 15 minute chart (below)
From a purely “trading” point of view – there is a risk of filling the gap – but as that is not an exact science either and it would be a shame to miss the increase, we can set up a position in two stages – half now – and half in the event of a decline in the price of gas and filling of the upward gap of the 2nd of June 23.
Natural Gas 15-minute chart – Source: Tradingview.com – Analysis by James D. Touati – SAMT-ORG.ch
Add to this the American gas stocks which are being reduced:
“I’ll let you imagine what happens next, I’m not drawing you a picture…”
– NTM “Fever”.
We can therefore deduce that if investors have a spark of genius on this underlying, then an explosion in the price of Natural Gas remains possible.
It would therefore seem quite logical to “go out covered” as C.Dechavanne would say and to “hedge” for the winter. That will still be that much less to pay on the bill this winter. A possible strategy would be to buy OPTION CALLs with a March 2024 maturity with a STRIKE at $4 for the timid and $5 for speculators for example.
Be attentive and careful! Good trades and please share.
For more details, you can contact me or follow me on these networks:
LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/james-d-touati-941a8ba6
Tradingview: https://fr.tradingview.com/u/james-samt/
"PAKA PAKA"
James D.Touati aka."The Wolf of Zurich".
About the author
James D. Touati aka. The Wolf of Zurich is a French trader specializing in futures and CFD trading, a technical analyst and stock market trainer. In a pursuit of earning a living from trading, he has developed a profitable trading method successfully, consisting of a mix of tick data, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracements, levels and Wolfe Waves.
credits: The Wolfe Wave pattern was originally developped by Bill Wolfe from New York. More information on his website.
James does not only speak 5 languages fluently (French, English, Russian, Spanish, Arabic), but with his solid industrial experience (former CEO JB aviation (Hong Kong), former Chairman M9 global group (link PETRONAS), former Partner CHINESE BUSINESS CLUB (Paris) he is a proven global entrepreneur as well.
Furthermore he has got a background as an intermediation and interconnection specialist for the oil&gas and the aviation industry in the Middle East and East countries.
Disclaimer: All methods, techniques, charts, analysis or results presented in this SAMT Blog are for educational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. You should always consult with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment to your particular financial situation. The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity. SAMT and its affiliates, directors or agents will not be held liable or responsible for your investment decisions.
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